Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 12.526069 14.120746 15.965974 18.290506 21.187647 24.746400 29.560403
2024-10-06 10.603986 12.536030 14.954822 18.299408 22.971191 29.560103 40.197976
2024-10-13 9.124022 11.084293 13.654592 17.419318 23.087163 31.904881 48.272414
2024-10-20 8.037626 9.945688 12.528136 16.468183 22.737731 33.269028 55.279263
2024-10-27 7.238739 9.084655 11.645359 15.681332 22.402976 34.464645 62.604093
2024-11-03 7.341377 9.462052 12.545904 17.728519 27.210695 46.894203 107.291523
2024-11-10 7.133930 9.362612 12.710874 18.602690 30.175718 57.251959 165.816768
2024-11-17 6.584665 8.704638 11.931840 17.719588 29.437895 58.372275 191.463190
2024-11-24 6.263403 8.363785 11.620674 17.621450 30.318119 64.338849 262.159802
2024-12-01 5.942944 7.998768 11.233296 17.323248 30.683815 69.098998 351.613748
2024-12-08 5.700889 7.737705 10.992664 17.266914 31.598060 76.340556 533.118272
2024-12-15 5.517094 7.554838 10.865602 17.411334 33.045256 86.797476 990.150706
2024-12-22 5.255735 7.245340 10.518885 17.119147 33.451152 94.330620 1934.140771
2024-12-29 5.061414 7.032600 10.324499 17.119515 34.680384 107.406120 8641.614100
2025-01-05 4.769869 6.643645 9.787357 16.324417 33.454503 106.930173 21347.631604
2025-01-12 4.491523 6.263598 9.243599 15.463300 31.876996 103.568315 44306.448965
2025-01-19 4.253595 5.940482 8.785142 14.748948 30.621895 101.507226 292638.774296
2025-01-26 4.376386 6.223430 9.448203 16.603720 37.912308 169.784070 NaN
2025-02-02 4.347886 6.246874 9.629373 17.392063 42.200422 238.554646 NaN
2025-02-09 4.140916 5.951679 9.179332 16.595655 40.358867 230.301638 NaN
2025-02-16 4.025506 5.811184 9.021521 16.507015 41.266697 265.622553 NaN
2025-02-23 3.897913 5.643800 8.801046 16.237507 41.389287 291.822436 NaN
2025-03-02 3.801066 5.526379 8.671945 16.186565 42.423056 344.377850 NaN